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Robert Townshend's avatar

Another take on the present events: The ridiculous paragliders, the easy penetration of Israel's defenses, the easy taking of ideal hostages (festival frolickers)...all of this reeked of collaboration between Israeli operatives and Hamas operatives. (Both sides of the Israeli political press have more-than-hinted in the past at Bibi-Hamas connections.)

I think we may be looking at a demolition and evacuation rather than a war. A murderous affair, but not a war. I'm aware of how implausible that sounds but the degree of collaboration between US/Israel military intelligence and the constantly shifting and rebadged "terror" organisations is hardly secret.

Of course, it doesn't make much sense to me, an outsider. I'm guessing that a war reacting to terror rather than a forced evacuation of Gaza is easier to sell to the wider world, even to the wider Sunni world. It's a very hard sell, but the other is harder still.

And maybe it's not going to work. The blatant alignment with the Kurds in the Syrian expansion added to the perception of an open war on helpless Sunnis may be more than the Turks will tolerate. And if Turkey swings against Israel and its NATO partners...

Look, I'm not sure of any of this, and I'm a long-term admirer of Norman Finkelstein. I just can't buy the paragliders and the festival frolicker hostages. Seen too much fakery, smelt too much fakery in recent years. This looks and smells like fakery.

Turfseer's avatar

WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR ISRAEL UNDER THE FINKELSTEIN PLAN

1. 🏠 Demographic Overhaul via Right of Return

• Millions of Palestinian refugees (or descendants) claim their right to return, mostly to areas now inside Israel proper (Haifa, Jaffa, Galilee).

• The Jewish majority vanishes—or becomes tenuous.

• Israel as a Jewish state ceases to exist. It becomes a binational state, potentially named “Israel-Palestine” or “Greater Palestine.”

🚨 Impact: Jewish Israelis may perceive this as national suicide. Internal civil unrest, brain drain, and emigration of secular Jews accelerate. Right-wing factions go underground or launch insurgencies.

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2. 🗺️ Collapse of the Zionist Project

• If Finkelstein’s conditions are met—including full withdrawal to 1967 borders, East Jerusalem handed over, dismantling of settlements—then Zionism in its original form (a safe Jewish homeland) is effectively dismantled.

💥 Symbolic Fallout: Seen by many Israelis as a betrayal of the legacy of the Holocaust and a failure to provide a haven for global Jewry.

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3. 🚪 Power Vacuum & Armed Factionalism

• Israel's withdrawal from the West Bank and blockade-lift in Gaza opens the floodgates:

o Armed groups (not just Hamas, but Islamic Jihad, PFLP, and Iranian-backed cells) gain influence.

o A power struggle emerges between Fatah, Hamas, and more extreme Islamist elements.

o Gaza's Iranian-aligned factions may bring missiles closer to Tel Aviv.

🎯 Result: Security deteriorates within months. Tel Aviv and other cities could face a new wave of attacks—only now with Israel holding no legal or military ground in those territories.

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4. ⚖️ Prosecution of Israeli Leaders and Soldiers

• International courts finally get their chance:

o Israeli generals, politicians, and even soldiers face arrest warrants for war crimes.

o Travel becomes legally risky for former IDF brass and cabinet members.

o Israeli institutions lose credibility globally.

⚖️ Bonus nightmare: An Israeli prime minister is detained abroad. Domestic chaos ensues.

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5. 💢 Settler Rebellion & Civil War

• 700,000 settlers live beyond the 1967 borders.

• Forced evacuations provoke:

o Armed settler militias.

o Riots in Jerusalem and the West Bank.

o Possibly a military split—some IDF units refuse to evict settlers.

🧨 Think Gaza withdrawal × 1,000.

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6. 🔄 Arab World Turns the Tables

• The Arab League (and Iran) push for:

o Further dismantling of Israeli nuclear capabilities.

o Reparations for decades of Palestinian suffering.

o International mandates on internal Israeli laws deemed "discriminatory" (e.g., Law of Return).

🌍 Result: Israel goes from a regional superpower to a regulated pariah, depending on foreign peacekeeping forces to survive.

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7. 🧠 National Identity Crisis

• Jewish Israelis grapple with the question: What are we now?

o A "state of all its citizens"?

o A minority with trauma-laden history?

o A secular democracy with no unique Jewish character?

😵 Outcome: Polarization deepens. Theocratic hardliners vs. cosmopolitan secularists. Chaos on Twitter. Op-eds galore.

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🧾 Summary: Israel’s Nightmare Checklist

Category Consequence

Demographics Loss of Jewish majority, binational state, possible Jewish emigration

Security Renewed attacks, rise of radical groups, destabilization

Law & Diplomacy ICC indictments, loss of travel access for officials, UN scrutiny

Internal Stability Civil war with settlers, military insubordination, collapse of Zionist consensus

National Identity Existential confusion over being a "Jewish state"

Regional Power Status Loss of deterrence, emboldened adversaries, possible demands for disarmament

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🧠 Bottom Line:

If Finkelstein's plan becomes reality without ironclad security guarantees and political consensus, Israel could unravel from within—facing existential, not just territorial, threats.

That said… is this inevitable? Not necessarily. A modified, realistic peace plan that addresses both Palestinian rights and Israeli security could thread the needle. But Finkelstein’s vision? It’s radical justice, not pragmatic diplomacy.

Under a true worst-case scenario, extrapolating far beyond Finkelstein’s intended vision—but acknowledging deep-seated fears among many Israelis and Jews globally—you arrive at the nightmare of nightmares: the potential for genocidal violence should hostile, radical elements like Hamas or more extreme factions take full control of a post-Israeli state.

8.🔥 The Ultimate Nightmare Scenario:

If Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or other jihadist groups gained complete military and political control over Israel/Palestine, without checks from the international community or internal Palestinian moderates, and acted according to their most extreme rhetoric and charter positions, then:

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☠️ Possibility: Mass Atrocities or Genocidal Acts

• Execution of Israeli civilians, especially settlers and former military personnel.

• Targeted massacres of Jews remaining in the territory, framed as revenge for decades of occupation.

• Systematic purging of Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa.

• Looting, rape, and humiliation of civilians as part of a "purification" campaign.

• International media blackout or indifference, allowing atrocities to proceed unchecked.

⚠️ This would not be traditional war, but rather an ideological and religiously framed vendetta, in which Jews could be treated as interlopers or "occupying crusaders" to be wiped out.

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🛑 Historical Parallels (the dark echoes):

• Einsatzgruppen-style mass executions: Mobile death squads operating in towns and villages, systematically executing groups of Jews.

• Extermination camps? Less likely given the resource intensity—but mass executions and field slaughter could be functionally similar.

• Ethnic cleansing of Bosnia/Kosovo scale: Forced expulsions, concentration zones, starvation sieges, and selective killing.

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🔥 Would Hamas actually do this?

While some Hamas leaders have moderated language in political contexts, the original 1988 Hamas Charter openly calls for:

• The destruction of Israel.

• A religious war until the land is “redeemed” through jihad.

• Rejection of any permanent peace.

The updated 2017 Hamas document is more politically nuanced, but does not recognize Israel, and still affirms “armed resistance” as the path to liberation. Some leaders have made antisemitic statements in both political and religious contexts.

So while this scenario is not inevitable—and would depend on a total breakdown of order, international law, and restraint—it can’t be dismissed as pure fantasy. The hatred exists. And in a vacuum of power, atrocity becomes possible.

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🧠 Final Thought:

Finkelstein may be advocating for human rights, not revenge—but in the real world, radical power vacuums get filled by the most organized and ideologically extreme actors. Without enforceable safeguards, the collapse of Israel could end not in peace—but in pogroms.

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